July 22nd, 2009
Eeewwww scary…3:16:38. There, I said it. At least, that’s how it looks from a big fat 18 weeks away. My reasoning? I like 7:30, it’s pretty. And 26.22 of them = 3:16:38 (edited to get that .02 in).
OK, my outside goal is sub 3:20, which my 5K PR more than agrees with (a useless fact if I didn’t have a 60 mpw base to back it up). In a couple weeks I’ll be averaging 70mpw and plan to peak at 90. Add to that 4 months of focused quality work and 7:30s seem quite reasonable.
So I’ve got 18 weeks until D-day…one can do some good damage in that amount of time. In fact, I just realized today that it was 18 weeks between Jan 1st and May 3rd (my Spring goal race). Granted, I’m sure I won’t see quite such a dramatic drop as those months brought since part of that was a 10lb weight loss, but still, the trend continued steadily for each successive month after I’d lost the weight, so I’m certain there’s room for another good chunk of improvement before November.
To that end, I started marathon training on Monday. Yeah, I know, I said I’d start first week of August, but I looked at the plan again (prompted by comments in the last post) and figured it’s pretty much what I’d be doing if I was freeforming, so why not give Hudson the credit and call this week 3 of his Level III plan? I miss being told what to do.
So…Monday was an easy 8, avg pace 8:19. Tuesday was 9 with 8 x 40sec. “fartleks” (Hudson’s version) at 10k-3k pace – avg for the run, 8:22. This morning I had 11 with the last 5 “moderate”, which turned out to be 7:36s for the faster bit and 8:10 avg. for the whole run (trying to keep my easy miles a tad slower these days).
Ah, a fresh training plan – its framework shows potential like nothing else. It’s like building a bigger and better house every single time. Exciting to imagine the possibilities. God, I love it.
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Sounds like a good goal. I have raced 3 times predicting everything from 3:12 to 3:17. I would shoot for that 3:16 then do a race close to your marathon and reevaluate. Good luck!
It’s going to be one heck of a performance that’s for sure. I just wish my fitness level would allow me to stay in that pace group as well, but I’m afraid I’ll be some 14 minutes behind if my training pans out as planned. Your progress and hard work is very impressive over the last year.
Looking good, Flo. We are eerily close, marathon-pace wise.
Actually, the distance is more like 26.22 if you’re going down to the second. That adds about 8 seconds, but you can get those back with a nice kick
Is the Philly course mostly flat? I assume they don’t send you up those steps from “Rocky”.
Totally doable. I’m inclined to be a troublemaker and say that goal isn’t aggressive enough! But sub 3:20 is great milestone (even if you do smash that, which I think you will if you can build up to that mileage and stay healthy doing so).
With those times, you’re mostly running with the guys in marathons. It’s a very good feeling.
Your weight loss (and now, let’s face it, Cristin Wurth-Thomas’) and possibly related performance gains have galvanized my own weight (or, really, fat) loss efforts. Not to mention the babeliciousness factor. I’ll see what I can shed between now and Labor Day, around when my own training commences in earnest.
In fact it’s 26.21875 miles.
Putting it down is a big deal. You can see it. I can see it. Everyone can see it.
Your recent HM translates to a 3:19:03 and your 10K to 3:16:42 at Runworks.com If you get the mileage up, 7:30s are doable.
Excellent that we’re starting to get serious about the Fall.
Preston, sounds like a good plan, I’m on it.
– what’s 8 seconds among friends? Thanks for the vote of confidence. That Half was hillier than Philly and my times dropped since then, so I’m feeling good about it. Yeah, between all us getting into the swing of things, it’s going to be some interesting reading in the blogosphere for the next few months.
Jhowdy, so cool that you’re doing Philly too! I can’t wait to meet you, I’ll be waiting for you to come in, cheering you on. You never know what 18 weeks will bring, you may end up closer to me than you think!
Jim, by the time we get to Fall, you’ll be far ahead of me with room to spare, but it is nice that we’re in the same vicinity at the moment, anyway. Yeah, Philly is pretty flat, just a couple hills, so that helps. Hope you’re feeling great this week, just a few more days to go till S.F.!! Good luck, good luck, good luck!!
Julie, I love your troublemaking skills, I might just be able to go faster, it’ll be up to what the months ahead bring. Thanks for telling me I’ll be running with the boys…I LOVE that, it’s so hot! As far as babeliciousness goes, you have it dripping out your ears, missy, so losing a few lbs. won’t make one iota of difference to you there. Also, you might already be at your prime weight, so I hope my comments didn’t come off as directed at you or anyone else, I was just relating my own experience with it. Sigh…weight sure is a touchy subject no matter how you slice it, isn’t it? (go read her blog, peeps, it’s a pretty interesting post today)
Joe, you and Jim, so anal with the .2
a word of caution: there is a point where the learning curve gets a bit steeper, particularly when you’ve already been making large strides and are over 25. particularly when you also seem to be crediting weight loss. despite conventional wisdom, its a tough thing to lose weight “for racing” and maintain proper nutrition. for a marathon, its a crucial balance. Professional runners have personal chefs and the like. Something citizen marathoners by and large don’t have.
that said, if you are using mcmillian as a predictor…bear in mind that the marathon predictions tend to be a bit optimistic based on the formla he uses. please do not think that i am suggesting you CAN’T hit that fast a time, but i’d certainly have “a” “b” and “c” goals – its a wise thing for any marathoner, no matter how experienced. because no matter what mcmillian says, there is a huge difference between your typical low 20, low 42, 1:34 or so 5/10/half races and a 3:15-3:16 range. My advice since your training seems pretty good would be to aim for a fall half in 1:32 or better or a 10 miler in under 70 to get a better indication. If you can beat 70 for the 10 miler, then you’re looking good.
Good luck!
-Pete
Thanks Pete, that’s exactly what I’m aiming for as far as my Half in September. If it doesn’t prove out, I’ll change my goal because for sure, I do not want to crawl to the finish, I already have enough ugly finishing photos in my short career.
As far as the weight loss goes, I’m still pretty meaty and eating well (5′4″ and 117.5) so it hasn’t been a sacrifice, just eating healthier.
You’re so right about the improvements dwindling, I know it’ll happen, just not sure when and how sharply. I’m thinking it won’t be like a cliff just yet, but if it is, I’ll take it like a man (and cry like a baby, lol).
Also, as far as McMillan, in the marathon training forum of Runners World where I hang out most, it’s often said that his calculation for the marathon only becomes somewhat trustable if you’re running 70mpw or over, so that’s why I’m thinking I have a chance (if, as you say, my races prove out). Cross your fingers for me.
Settle down Flo. You’re making me excited. 7:30s works out at 3:16:38, so 3:16:30 would be sub-7:30s.
Why doesn’t 7:37 look pretty? It’s palindromic!
I’ll be living my marathon training vicariously through you (as I don’t have any immediate plans to run a marathon).
7:37 was my pace at Steamtown. Right in Flo’s backyard. It’s a sign. (Insert therimin music.)
“still pretty meaty”…from those of us living at (or slightly above) the top of our BMI Healthly Weight Range we can feel your pain!
In a perfect world situation, what would you be happy with as far as pounds per inches in height? I’ve seen the number around 2 pounds per inch for a male, but what is the consensus for a female marathoner?
You guys are cracking me up. I have no clue what my pace will be in Philly, this is just a preliminary “throwing it out there” so don’t you people try moving it around already. And you are right, there is absolutely nothing wrong with 7:37s, it got Julie 1st in her AG at Steamtown (yay Julie!), but I like more scariness to shoot for, that’s part of the fun “will she won’t she? where is she now relative to the goal?” and as you can see, it also makes me speak of myself in 3rd person, which most people find sexy.
Jhowdy, Glover is the most generous, saying for my height 114 (here’s his formula and charts for those without the book) but ole Dr. Stillman would have me be 102. What an jerk, lol.
<—I’d have to sew up my mouth.
Most exciting post EVER! I think your goal sounds perfect, and like Preston said, you can always tune it closer to race day. “A little meaty” cracks me up. That’s exactly how I would classify myself, too. The problem? Well, I just love to eat. Good luck w/ everything. I will definintely be stalking your progress.
LA, I just wanna say, you are too cute! Your excitement for me put a huge-ass smile on my face. I’m always stalking you, btw.
I can’t remember if is was Pfitzinger or Hudson who wrote that a good goal-setter should miss their goals about half the time. That’s probably not a good policy for marathons, though!
McMillan works pretty well for me. A little conservative, if anything.
Hey Flo, Good to hear marathon training is finally underway. If I know you like I think I do, you will be meeting that goal. Good Luck to you! BTW, (not sure about your thoughts on Walmart) but they have 160 Osteo pills for $29.46. I know, I know, I hate Walmart — but I said Costco the other day so I wanted to correct myself. Happy Runs and I am looking forward to following your training! XOXO-jackie
Jim, I forgot about that, but now that you mention it I do remember reading it and thinking “oh yeah, that sounds right to me”. Love that you find McMillan conservative.
Jackie, thanks for the tip, that’s a bargain! I don’t hate Walmart actually (though feel guilty because I know I should). I’ll go there when I get through my latest vat. Smoochies to you girl!
Here we go! Looking forward to tracking your training, as always! (and watching you cross the finish line upright in philly!)
Doggie, looking forward to following you too, woman! Can’t believe it’s been a year since we trained for Steamtown, my how time flies. Lol, “upright” is my primary goal, I’m looking to do that for the Philadelphia Distance Run, too.
Add me to the A Little Meaty posse. Eating=me likey.
WTG on putting the goal out there, Flo! Gotta aim high–it’s not really a goal (IMO) if it’s too safe.
Wow, that’s an early goal. Very bold, I like it. My last 2 marathons, I waffled on my goal right up until the week before the race. This time around, I thought I knew exactly what the plan was, but now, who knows? Looks like there will be more waffling on my horizon.
Kazz, my feeling exactly, might as well give yourself some heart palpitations with each new goal.
Robert, there’ll be mucho waffling yet to come, this is just a first draft. Hope you’re feeling better.
Woo! Way to put it out there. We will be cheering you on, you can bet. And seeing you make these goals that you wouldn’t have dreamed of a year ago gives this old lady hope she can do the same one day.